Sunday, October 05, 2008

Technicals For The Japanese Yen Are Turning Bullish

Above is a weekly chart of the Japanese Yen and in the lower panel is the MACD indicator. You'll notice the MACD has just triggered a weekly buy signal which in my opinion is quite bullish. I like the fact that this is the first buy signal the MACD has given since the June 2007 low which means the longer-term uptrend is just getting started.

Since last summer the Japanese Yen has also been one of the strongest currencies when compared to the Euro, Swiss Franc and British Pound. In fact, since July of 2008, the Yen has been gaining on the Euro and is taking a leadership role.

Whether or not the Yen rallies from here remains to be seen, but I'll tell you one thing, I am looking to play this currency from the long side until proven otherwise.


Joe said...


What is the ETF you would trade here?
Thanks, Joe

Anonymous said...

I believe you indicated in the past that a rising yen was somehow tied to a falling US stock market - is that still your view?

I can see how this might be related to Yen carry trade unwind...

Keep up the great work Kevin. Would like to hear more about gold when you have time. Half the folks are looking for $200 gold due to deflation. The other half are looking for 2000. So far the gold action seems to be respecting that exponential curve you showed from 2002-2008 and it would be good if you could help us understand if that trend changes.

Kevin said...

The ETF for the Yen is FXY


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