Monday, October 06, 2008

Japanese Yen Update

If you've been reading my comments regarding the Japanese Yen over the past week you would know that I've been bullish on this currency. Well today we are seeing a huge move higher in the Yen up about 4 1/2%. This is one of the largest up moves we have seen in recent trading.

My reasons for being bullish on the Yen were technical (as usual) and had to do with momentum as well as a comparative analysis of the several major foreign currencies that I follow. Basically I saw the Yen moving higher in the face of the Euro, Swiss Franc and British Pound collapsing. That was a clear indication to me that money was moving into the Japanese Yen and is why I've been positing about this particular currency so much over the past week.

Where the Japanese Yen goes from here remains to be seen but in my opinion I think this currency is still going higher.


Simit Patel said...

Yes, I agree the Yen rally is not done yet. Fundamentally I think USD and EUR still have unwinding to do, and I would expect central banks to increase their holdings in yen as the EUR and USD trends progress.

We are starting to see EURJPY give back some of its move today, though I think this is just consolidation and the trend is still intact.

Vorlon said...

Mr Ken,

I'm a long-time "silent" reader of your blog. I must say that most of your market-timing calls have been timely.

Just read one of your earlier postings on the 4-year maket cycle.

Given that the SPX is more than 20% below its 200-day MA, a sharp bear rally looks imminent. I've read

that such rallies have at least reached the 65-day MA in SPX.

Do you think the rally could reach the 65-day MA?

If not, what would be a safer "exit" point for longs, and to re-estbalish fresh shorts?

Appreciate your thoughts. Thank you.

Kevin said...

Hi Mr. Ken

I agree that some kind of rally is due but in my opinion I think it will be a bear market rally similar to the rallies we have seen so far this year.

I think a bounce to the 120.00 level in the SPX might be a good place to exit "some" longs but then again this is just my opinion. Nobody knows for certain what will happen. Good luck.


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