Tuesday, June 09, 2009

Japanese Yen - Update

The Japanese Yen pulled back to its neckline and bounced off support perfectly. As long as last week's low holds I consider this currency to be bullish but a move below last week's low will negate the bullish outlook.


Anonymous said...

Thanks kevin.I have started applying the elliot wave since recently.Whats your take on how do I use this in combination with other forms of technical analysis.According to elliot,we should be done with a wave 2 pullback which fell on strong monthly breakout resistance.However, assuming I am 100% accurate( not possible ofcourse), can we expect wave patterns to change even as they are being formed or will formation of one wave already decide the formation of the next?I hope you understand my question.Thanks

victorberry said...

Maybe I've got it backwards, but doesn't your "bullish" view of the Japanese yen actually mean that the yen will be "weaker" relative to the US dollar if/when the inverse H&S pattern plays out as expected?

Kevin said...

Hi Victorberry,

The above chart is the Yen vs the Dollar. So if the inverse head and shoulders pattern plays out, the Yen should gain on the dollar. The above chart is similar to a yen futures chart.

Kevin said...

Hi anonymous,

I can't answer your question because I've never been able to make money using Elliot wave. Way too complicated for me.

Anonymous said...

Thanks Kevin,

I have a question regarding to the head and shoulder fomration (rather than inverted H & S). If I saw a 1D false downard breakout with low volume and quickly went above the trendline, then the trendline should become the support point instead of resistance correct?

Kevin said...

no I disagree. I wouldn't expect that trendline to become support. I'd actually expect that trendline to be broken again at some point.

Kevin said...

Keep it simple. Look to exit USO around here. My targer has been $42 to $43 for USO.

FirePips said...

Hi Kevin,

I am also keeping an eye on USD/JPY. Lets see if it works out alright.


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