Monday, March 16, 2009

Has The U.S. Dollar Put In A Top



Above is a daily chart of the U.S. Dollar and as you can see the technical picture is rapidly becoming bearish. Two weeks ago the dollar broke out to a new high only to fall right back down trapping all the longs that bought the breakout. Seems like many markets right now are experiencing false breakouts such as the Mexican Peso, our stock market etc.

In the above chart you can see that the dollar has broken its uptrend line and the MACD is on a sell signal confirming this move down.

Below is a weekly chart of the U.S. Dollar and as you can see a bearish divergence has occurred between price and the MACD indicator. The dollar made a new high but the MACD didn't. This is a good indication that we are about to see this currency move lower in the weeks to come.

I personally would love to see the dollar sell off because that should provide support for my long oil position. A falling dollar is bullish for commodities such as oil, metals, grains, softs..etc. As always, we'll see what happens.

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