Sunday, February 17, 2008

Will Oil Break above $100 Dollars A Barrel?



Above is a chart of crude oil and in the lower pane is a valuation oscillator that I use. The oscillator is basically comparing crude oil with what other commodities are doing and then I smoothed the oscillator with a moving average.

As you can see every time the oscillator gets to the buy line, crude oil moves higher and takes out the last swing high point. The last swing high point on this chart is the 100 dollar a barrel level. Based on the past performance of this oscillator, I think we'll see crude oil move above $100 a barrel. Gasoline is already making new highs and is the leader of the oil complex at the moment.

1 comment:

lonelytrader said...

Demand will slow a teensey bit...by about 200K bpd, according to some guy on some business news show somewhere. Let's see what happens when OPEC meets. I said back in December, I think, that I thought we would see $80 before we would see $120. We saw $85, but I think we need another stab lower to take out some specs so that the spot price reflects a "truthier" supple-demand picture. What way you K?

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