Friday, March 09, 2007

Is The 2nd Week Of The Month Still Bullish For The Dow?



Last month I posted an observation that I made about the dow jones industrials being bullish the 2nd week of the month. The last trade which I wrote about before the fact happen to work out well. The question that I am getting now is am I going to take the trade next week. The answer is NO.

The 2nd week of the month has been bullish as long as the trend was up. The moving average you see in the above chart is a 10 week average which is the same as a 50 day average. Notice the average has turned down now indicating the trend is down not up. So based on that alone, I'm not going to take the trade next week.

4 comments:

Sandro said...

I think we have another 6-7% to go down and another 5-6 week to do that.

Only after mid-April the market could start getting back to where it was 2 weeks ago.

What do you think?

Kevin said...

I agree...I'm looking for another leg down.

Eric said...

another leg down but i think we see it much sooner and quicker than 5 weeks. but the real move will be when the fed either cuts or raises rates. If they leave them we have a slow up trend. all IMO of course

Mike Truong said...

Let's see if this week test your hypothesis. Today 3-12-07, the dow just won't go down in the face of potential problems in the financial sector. Could it be that there is some kind of program buying that occur on the second week of the month, ie 401k,ira,etc?

Mike

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