The bond market has recently broken out of a three year trading range as can be seen in the above weekly chart of TLT. The important level to watch for would be the 123.00 zone as this
is the top of the trading range (prior resistance) which now should act as support.
If the bullish breakout is going to continue, the 123.00 area must hold and may even offer a low risk buying point should TLT encounter buying once this level is tested. On the other hand, if TLT is able to post several closes below this area, that may suggest a breakout failure and much lower prices can be expected.
As always rather than guess what will happen I will let the market tell me what it wants to do by waiting to see how traders react once the 123.00 level is tested. Let's see what happens.