Sunday, October 10, 2010

Bonds - Setting Up For A Short Trade

Above is a chart of TLT (20 year treasury bond ETF) and in the lower panel is IEI which is the 3-7 year bond fund ETF. As you can see both markets have been trending together perfectly since this bull market began but now we are seeing a divergence take place which in my opinion presents a trading opportunity.

IEI is making new highs but TLT is making a lower high and appears to be rolling over. The fact that TLT couldn't make new highs along with IEI alerts me to the fact that there is selling pressure in TLT. A break below the green line (103.93) in my opinion might be a good place to enter a short position with a protective stop above last week's high.  As always. we'll see what happens!

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