Thursday, June 17, 2010

Stock Market Projection

I know as a trader it's not good to make forecasts but I want everyone who follows this blog to be clear as to what I am anticipating in the stock market.

Overall I am bullish on stocks for the next few weeks which is why I am long  right now. I did however take a third of my long position off yesterday to lock in some small profits, cover commissions and slippage while also reducing my open risk exposure... 

I did short a few homebuilders today around 9:45 as they broke yesterday's lows. I am not heavy in this position and I think this will be a quick trade on the short side.

If you look at the above chart of the S&P, it will be clear as to what I am anticipating over the next 4 to 6 trading days. I think the S&Ps will pullback here slightly going into next week at which point I would like to cover my short position and add to my longs that I am still holding.

If on the other hand stocks just take off from here, I will quickly abandon my shorts and just let the longs that I have on play out. Let's see what happens.


Anonymous said...

Some great posts , I really enjoy them and look forward to your comments. I do some trading , however with this current market I am standing back .

Freddy said...

Hi thanks for the projection. By reading this, I will consider to hold my stock during few days ahead so I wouldn't become a victim of fake bearish

ben said...

You have been right about the S&P.
The simple way how I look at it is
the stochastic went below 20 in the last 2 weeks that is why S&P rally.
I hope S&P will rally more to get
stochastic above 80 so I can begin
to short again. The fundamentals continue to be terrible and it
would be a fool's game to buy at this level. I have been writing puts on
S&P that is expired. I am looking to
write calls when stochastic reach
above 80

Anonymous said...

Ben, be careful with writing puts & calls. don't let the winning % fool you into believing that this is an easy game to pull $$ from the market. From your statement, i can see that you have not seen the wrath of the fickle minded market. My advice is not to be lured into a state of complacency. just my 2 cents...


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