Monday, November 23, 2009

Stocks Rally But Lack Of Confirmation Continues

Well, we can now add the NASDAQ to the growing list of markets not making new highs with the Dow and S&P. Today stocks gapped open higher with the dow once again being the strongest of the major indices and making new highs.

Historically stocks have rallied around Thanksgiving and maybe this is what we saw today but the growing number of stocks not making new highs with the dow just reinforces my bearish outlook on the stock market. Lets see what happens tomorrow.


ben said...

I short around the high today,
but I think the S&P can possibly
break the resistence of 1112-1113
on any good economic news before
the end of week. Friday after
Thanksgiving is very good but the
Monday after that is bad. We should short before the market
close this Friday.
S&P has been trading almost exactly
the opposite of US dollar in the last few months and today is no
different. US dollar just cannot overcome all the bearish talk from the Feds. Picking the top is a loser's game but I cannot resist the temptation.

Kevin said...

Hey Ben,

I agree, trying to pick the top in the S&P is a losers game which is why I shorted stocks that have been making lower highs. These stocks are in new down trends. If these stocks get pulled up with the S&P I will exit and take a loss...not a big deal.

Dacian said...

Kevin, back in November 2008 there were lots of gold stocks making higher lows while the metal was making new lows. Today we have the opposite, what do you think? Is this bearish for the sector?

From a more "conventional" standpoint, the gold stocks are very expensive; they have yields below 1% for the major players (Barrick, Goldcorp, etc.).

What do you think?

Kevin said...

Yes, gold stocks not making new highs could be bearish for gold but I wouldn't bother trying to pick a top in gold as it's the strongest market right now. I'd rather wait for the dollar to break its downtrend line and then maybe look to short some of these metals.

Anonymous said...

I am in energy trusts that pay a good dividend . They seem so far to be acting okay against a down market . I guess the bigger question is , where is oil heading ?

Anonymous said...

hi Kevin I know you said before we can calculate ATR through but i cant find ATR for currencies in there do you know any other website can calculate ATR for currencies ? , and what do you think wall st index is just about to do according to your analysis? your respond much appreciated

Kevin said...

I'm not sure I understand you. If you want to calculate the ATR for currencies on, simply type in FXE (euro) and then run the ATR study.

Anonymous said...

Thanks for your response Kevin but i meant ATR for each pair let say USD/CAD , EUR/GBP or USD/GBP, can do this through stockscharts website?


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