Monday, November 02, 2009

Crude Oil Update

A few of you have been writing in asking me what my opinion is on crude oil so I decided to make this post so that you can see exactly what I am thinking (if that means anything to anyone).

Above is a daily chart of USO which is the ETF for crude oil. As you know I have been long this market based on the breakout of the symmetrical triangle formation which I posted here on this blog well before the breakout occurred. I was somewhat skeptical of buying the breakout 3 weeks ago due to the bearish seasonal that usually kicks in around this time of year but I went and bought USO anyway but with a smaller share size.

As of now I have not taken any profits on my long position because my profit target is much higher. I did however raise my protective stop to lock in a small gain if the oil market decides to head south.

You'll notice in the above chart that USO is now developing a bull flag formation. I do not plan to add to my position due the bearish seasonal that is due around now but if oil does make a move to new highs, I will then raise my stop right below the low of the flag which as of now comes in at around the $39 level. Lets see what happens.


Anonymous said...

Hi Kevin...great stuff.

One question, do you think it's a bit contradiction when USD seems to find bottom and oil seems like it's going up?


Kevin said...

I totally agree, thats why I'm raising my protective stop, I don't trust this up move in oil...


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