Monday, June 01, 2009

Crude Oil - Upside Target For USO



Crude Oil is really beginning to accelerate to the upside here. As you know I've been mega bullish on oil and have been expressing this view just about every week since last February. I just wanted to post the upside Inverse Head And Shoulders target for USO in the above chart.

Last week I scaled out of half my long position at the 200 day moving average and I continue to hold the remaining position looking for that upside target of $42 to $43 for USO. We'll see if the rally continues.

6 comments:

Anonymous said...

Kevin,

Love reading your blog. But don't have an "I had told you so" part in every post.

Keep up the good work

Kevin said...

I apologize if I come across that way but my posts are in response to some of the comments I get where people are jumping the gun or saying that my analysis is wrong. I'm simply pointing out the importance of patience, discipline and following the signals.

Anonymous said...

Kevin,

Great blog, read it all the time!

Question, you mentioned in your recent post on USO that you "scaled out of half my long position at the 200 day moving average", but isn't the 200 DMA @ ~$44?

Kevin said...

200 day moving average for crude oil futures not USO.

Anonymous said...

Kevin,

Silver appears to have topped and gold as well. Can USO go up if the money metals are all clapped out? Also, one wave count could be interpreted as a completed a-b-c wave in USO per this picture:

http://imgur.com/WYIyM.gif

Yes, it would make the 5th wave of C a bit tiny relative to waves 1 and 3, but it would not be the first time I had seen that on 5 of C. Also, I think it is potentially telling that what I marked as 5 of C hit the 1-3 line which is often where 5th waves tire out. If it weren't for silver having put in a top I would probably not be as concerned with talking about a top in USO. Only time will tell. Good luck.

DaveT

Al said...

Kevin,

New to your blog and enjoying it. One question which I haven't seen addressed but perhaps I've missed it. It would appear that you trade ETFs but notice sometimes you chart the futures market. Are you basing some of your analysis on the Futures markets but trading the ETF? What's the thinking behind looking at both rather than one or the other? How do you decide which to use? Thanks

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