Saturday, May 09, 2009

Crude Oil - Upside Target



Crude oil has been advancing nicely over the past few weeks so I would like to discuss where I'm looking to exit this long trade assuming the rally continues.

Even though I am trading the ETF for crude oil (USO) it is still important to look at the futures market for chart patterns. Above is a daily continuation futures chart of crude oil with about 7 months worth of price data. So far we have seen two rallies take place since the low which was made in late December. The first rally (points A to B) advanced 38%. In February the next rally began (points C to D) and it advanced 48%. If we add 38% and 48% to the low at point E, we get an upside target zone of $64 to $69 a barrel. I think this would be a logical area to exit longs if oil were to trade in this price zone.

For those of you who are curious as to why I've been bullish on oil, you can read my original post "Has Crude Oil Bottomed" and a more recent post which was made on April 30th entitled "Potential Trade".

3 comments:

Anonymous said...

Kevin,

What do you think of the upside target for natural gas? Would it pull back in the short term? I'd like to get long but missed the boat.
What's your take on FAZ?
Thanks!

Kevin said...

I'll post a chart in the next day or so.

Anonymous said...

so why the difference in uso and crude oil continuous futures?

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