Saturday, April 25, 2009

Keep An Eye On This Market



Last fall the bond market (TLT) consolidated for several months as it tested its 200 day moving average just prior to the big upmove. We are now seeing a similar pattern take place as the bond market has been consolidating for the past 3 months.

Usually after such a consolidation a market will breakout and begin a trend. The direction of the breakout is not known until the market actually tells us so by posting several closes outside of the trading range. TLT is currently testing its 200 day moving average which is a very important area to watch in determining which way TLT will go. Let's keep a close eye on this market.

8 comments:

Anonymous said...

Hey Kevin
A bit off topic, but do you ever use STD (standard deviation) wihtin your charts? If so can you provide an example using STD.

thanks,
Tim

Kevin said...

The only time I use STD is to identify a low volatility setup...similar to bollinger bands contracting.

Anonymous said...

Kevin,
do you have an update to your gold stock post?
http://kevinsmarketblog.blogspot.com/2009/04/gold-stocks-show-bullish-divergence.html

Anonymous said...

US Bonds are in a lot of trouble. Inerest rates have been kept down by quantitative easing. That will not last forever. I believe treasuries are the best short in the market right now!!! Keep it up KP, the blog has been informative and helpful. You still see the market better than almost anyone I know!!

Kevin said...

:-)

DG said...

Kevin: Just discovered your site from a posting of Jason's. Very nice simple charts and ideas. I have been trading for 35 years, and am always delighted to find a site that's useful and simple. Complex math and theories are not necessary to stay on the right side of the market. Thanks!

DG

Kevin said...

Thank You DG

Bruce said...

Nice call Kevin. You are certainly vindicated since 4/28/09.

Care to elaborate your thoughts on the cause? more significant dilution of the USD and subsequent inflation eventually?

DISCLAIMER

This site may include market analysis. All ideas, opinions, and/or forecasts, expressed or implied herein, are for informational purposes only and should not be construed as a recommendation to invest, trade, and/or speculate in the markets. Trading and investing involves high levels of risk. Any investments, trades, and/or speculations made in light of the ideas, opinions, and/or forecasts, expressed or implied herein, are committed at your own risk, financial or otherwise.
 
Google
Technorati Profile Finance Blogs - Blog Top Sites