Monday, April 20, 2009

Crude Oil Falls Below Its 50 Day Moving Average

As you know I've been bullish on the oil market since late February and as you can see in the above chart USO has rallied up to $32 on March 26th. Over the past few weeks the oil market has been moving sideways but has clearly broken out of that range today as oil was down over 7.5%.

USO has fallen below its 50 day moving average which in my opinion is a big blow to the bullish argument. I've been long USO since February 25th but took the trade off today when the low from April 1st was taken out on today's open.

The historical seasonal pattern for crude oil suggests that this market should still rally but I am not going to argue with what the market is telling me right now. If the technical picture begins to improve I can always get back in but for now I'm out of the oil market!

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