Sunday, April 05, 2009

Asia Has Been Leading Our Stock Market Higher

As you know I'm a big believer in following some of the Asian markets because I've noticed many times in the past that these markets have acted as a leading indicator for our stock market.

Above is a daily chart of the S&P500. I'd like for you to take notice of where the S&P is relative to its 50 and 200 day moving averages.

Now lets look at the next chart which is a daily chart of the ETF for the Taiwan market symbol EWT. Notice how much stronger this market is than the S&P. EWT is right at its 200 day moving average whereas the S&P still has more room to go before it reaches its 200 day average.

Now we'll look at the strongest stock market in the world over the past few months which is the Shanghai index. This is a market I've been following very closely for quite awhile. Notice how the Shanghai index is above its 200 day moving average. If you look closely you'll also notice that the 50 day moving average is about to cross above the 200 day average which some technicians call a "golden cross" and is considered to be a major buy signal. As you can see this market is much stronger than any other world stock market and is currently the leader of the pack. I suggest we all keep a close eye on what the Shanghai index continues to do in the weeks to come.


Anonymous said...


Does this mean the FXI should catch up to the Shang Index?

Kevin said...

It's possible...Lets put it this way, I wouldn't want to be short FXI with the Shanghai index exploding higher.

Anonymous said...

What is the stock market symbol for the Shanghai index?

Gilgamesj said...

Does anyone know why the FXI etf doesn't match the Shanghai composite? Is it because the 25 stocks it buys are bought in Hongkong and not directly in mainland China because it's forbidden?

Anonymous said...

I'm also a big fan of asian stocks but sold recently. They look ST overextended. Are you looking for a pullback?

Kevin said...

Yes, I do think these markets are due for a pullback


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