Sunday, December 16, 2007

2nd Week Of The Month was Down For Stocks

Over the past 16 months, the dow has rallied the 2nd week of the month providing the dow was above it's 10 week moving average at the beginning of the week. This trade has worked every month until last week. The dow closed below it's open producing a black candle which means it was a down week.

I'm still long the NASDAQ (Q's) because I do believe that stocks will make new highs for the year. C'mon Santa, give us a rally!!


Elaine said...


Analysts are now saying it is a good time to buy both tech and health care. The Q's have both.

I own Jan. 45 call options that have little time value left. Kevin, do you have an idea how high the Q's can get by January expiration? Thanks!

Shen said...

Yes, new high for the year is very possible, bears are betting big on recession, will they get it? Big Ben will answer them.
I noticed DIA is stronger QQQQ in this market environment. DOW will probably be the first to make new high

Sandro said...

My bet is that we won't see the October heights for another 15 years.


wxman said...

This is trading based on absolutely nothing that just happened to work. The economy is in recession and you actually think we are going to new deserve to be crushed.

TRS said...

Another good example of extreme complacency that I have been seeing on many blogs. Many are still calling for the santa rally and new highs. New highs will have to take the S&P up over 7% in just 10 trading days.

wxman said...

Yeah I agree..most so-called investors are in some sort of la-la land. We have the worst housing crisis in decades..worst credit crisis in decaded..debt levels at record levels..and its all collapsing. Yet we still have many people talking about new highs..come on..there is more to it than just looking at what happened over the past few years. The past few years was driven by massive amounts of people tapping into home equity because of easy credit/money..there was no real wealth creation..all a big fantasy. And now its time to pay back all this debt..which of course is impossible which will give serious problems to the banking industry and consumers will have no more easy money to spend.
So to suggest that the stock market will make new highs on horrific fundamentals is just total lunacy..but this market has been abolutely moronic. How we can be trading at these levels when we are clearly moving into a recession is just ridiculous. As many say the equity traders are not the brightest bunch around. I cant wait for the big crash. Then we will probably hear all these investors crying to the government to bail them out just like all the homeowners who were stupid enough to buy houses way beyond their means..what a joke this all is..

Stephanie said...

Thanks, Kevin.


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