Friday, October 19, 2007

Stocks Tumble on Black Monday Anniversary

Stocks got hit today on the 20th Anniversary of Black Monday. As you know I've been short the mortgage related stocks from about 2 weeks ago. I covered half the position a few days ago (a little bit too early) and I covered 25% more today at the close.

You'll notice the S&P is approaching its 50 day moving average and it is possible that we may see a bounce in the market so I decided to take some money off the table by covering about 25% of my short position in the mortgage related stocks.

Below is a chart of the MFX index. You can see how far these stocks have dropped since I first wrote about them on October 10th . One thing I love about shorting is that when stocks fall, they move rapidly and the profits are large and fast... gotta love it!!


Noel said...


I have been reading your Blog for
over six months. Imho, you have proven to be a superb chartist, but I do have a criticism. Your chart success is always posted after the fact. It's like a guy at the track, winning a major race and then bragging to his friends about the money he's won. His friends ask why didn't you tell us why you chose the horse before the race? Why not give your readers your set-ups before and not your chart posts? It's almost like someone bragging on how well he's doing. You would be doing your readers a larger service; if you did.


Lawrence Chiu said...

I don't agree with the previous comment. Kevin has given us advance info of his many trades in the past.

gamrun said...

Kevin,I have been a reader of your blog since the you first starting posting.I have never posted,but I felt compelled to register to reply to Noel.Your chart and market skills are unsurpassed IMHO.You always post before the move,and 9 out 10 ,your dead on.! Start a paid service,I'll be your first subscriber.Noel is out of line.

Stephanie said...

I agree with lawrence and gamrun. I read your blog daily and love your posted set ups (BEFORE the fact). If you ever do start a paid service, I'll be the second one to sign up! Thanks for all that you do.

Kevin said...

Hello Everyone,

Noel...I've always posted my comments BEFORE the fact...I take chances with every post and I never brag about any of my trades.. I'll be the first to admit that I have losing trades just like everyone else..

I just can't believe after reading my blog for 6 months that you could possible say such a thing... Look at the last trade for example with MFX..I was bearish on that BEFORE it sold off... Just read my posts from October 10th...End of story!

I'd also like you to take a look at my 2nd week of the month trade...I've written about this trade 8 months ago and it continues to work and make money EVERY month....How much more in advance do I have to post my forecasts?!!

I don't mean to get on your case Noel, but your comment really pissed me off.... maybe that's why I've cut back on the number of posts over the last few months...they are simply not appreciated...

To the rest of you, I just wanted to say thanks Lawrence, gamrun and Stephanie...

gamrun said...

Hello Kevin,I just read your reply to Noel's comments.Entertain the thought of a members only site.Keep out the rif-raf,if you know what I mean!!

Stephanie said...

I second that, gamrun! A members only site would be awesome! What I learn from you, Kevin, is definitely better than what I get from other services that I do pay for. Just think about it...

Anonymous said...


Wow... FWIW, you are always one of the first sites I check each morning! for you are spot on.

Noel, my advice for you: frequent another site.

cheesefries said...

Your charting is absolutely dead on. This Noel clown most likely has an alternative agenda. You charting set-ups are the best I have seen. Thank you for all that you do. If you start a pay site, you can sign me up.

stakeholder said...

HEY! I'm the first paid subscriber when we get the chance. Suggested it months ago and most recently a week or so get in line and pull out your wallets.

Noel is a moron...obviously.

Thanks for all input you provide Kev, I bought some of those books you recommended. Liked em all except the "Disciplined Trader"...found nothing in there. :)

Seriously...I too look to this blog everyday hoping to learn something new.


Lawrence Chiu said...

Kevin, please don't stop posting because of that snarky comment.

The Word said...


Please ignore Kevin's comment.
I also read you every day and this person is not living on the same planet as you and I and others who posted before me.

Perhaps you could "filter" these unproductive and untrue comments before they appear on your blog. This sort of "contribution" distracts from the value of your blog. An believe me, there is a lot of value here.

Kevin said...

Hi guys,

I just wanted to say thanks for all the nice comments.

I thought about approving every comment before it appears on this blog, but I've always felt I wanted the good and bad comments to appear here..I'm not going to cherry pick which comments I allow on here to make my blog look better...but maybe I should start to filter out some of the comments on here because it is a distraction...we'll see..

throwaway said...

Hi Kevin, I would just like to agree with all the commenters above that you do indeed post set-ups before the event and have a great record of these set-ups being right. On more than one occasion I have thought that you couldn't possible be right in your predictions and yet they have turned out to be correct.

cheesefries said...

What do you think about the head and shoulders pattern forming in the SMH?


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