Tuesday, May 29, 2007

Silver Forming A Bottom?



I usually don't post before the open due to the lack of time, but I wanted to post this chart of Silver because I will be watching it today and the days to come for a possible buying opportunity..

Notice in the above chart how Silver tends to make bottoms around its 200 day moving average. Every bottom over the last year has developed at this moving average.

In the lower pane is the stochastic oscillator. Notice how every bottom coincided with the stochastics moving below the buy line (red line) followed by a turn up in the oscillator.

Over the last few days Silver has formed a small 1-2-3 pattern which on its own can signal a possible buy. When you combine the 1-2-3 pattern with the oversold stochastic reading and the 200 day moving average support level, I think the odds favor a possible rally in the near future.

I think the risk reward is good on this trade. I'll be a buyer of SLV if point 2 is taken out.

I also would like to say just because things are lining up does not mean this trade has to work. Always risk a small amount of money relative to your account size on every trade and always use stops. My protective stop for this trade will be below point 3 should I get long this market.

2 comments:

Unknown said...

Kevin, I am curious as to when you would look for an exit to this silver trade if you went in. Would you look at the stochastic oscillator or would you just use something like a trailing stop.

Great blog by the way!

Kevin said...

Hi,

I am long Silver...I bought it 2 days ago. For my exit I will use targets which I will talk about later when I post about silver...

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