Wednesday, May 23, 2007

Possible Short Term Top In Crude Oil




Above is a daily chart of USO which is the ETF for Crude Oil. As you can see this market is beginning to make lower lows and lower highs over the last 8 weeks.

You'll also notice that approximately every 17 days crude oil tends to make a short term top which is where we are right now.

In the lower pane the %R oscillator is in an overbought zone suggesting that oil might pull back here.

The lower chart is a seasonal chart which shows that oil tends to experience some selling pressure from May going into June.

So technically USO is making lower highs and lower lows, the oscillator is in an overbought zone, seasonally there is weakness this time of year and a 17 day cycle top is due.

I'll be looking to short this ETF if I see some more weakness coming into the oil market in the days to come.

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