I can't even begin to explain the frustration and disappointment I'm feeling about how I managed my short positions. I had a profitable trade in DIA, QQQQ and SPY until today. I went negative on my positions this afternoon and took off the SPY's and Q's at a loss. I still have half my DIA's short because it didn't hit my stop. If the dow takes out today's high tomorrow, I will exit the rest of my position.
I guess taking a position into a fed meeting was asking for trouble, but I've learned over the years to live with my decisions and just move onto the next trade. Being long a few oil stocks helped this afternoon, but giving back large open profits on my short trades and turning them into losers is one of the most frustrating things that can happen to a trader.
Okay....so now what? I can make an argument for both the bullish and bearish side. I can say that the we are going back down because we still have sub-prime to deal with and we also have the potential for more unwinding of the yen carry trade. Then again I can say that the long term trend in the market is up and now we should retest the highs.
I'm not sure what to think here, but I'll tell you one thing, I'm not going to argue with this market. I'm here to make money not to be right or wrong.
So far the magnitude of this bounce is leading me to think this is more than just a bounce. The only stocks I am long are the the oil stocks and GLD. I still have some short DIA's left which are against me. I think by the close of this week I'll have a better indication as to where I think this market is going. I haven't ruled out the market going back down, but I'm not going to try to be a hero and hold my shorts. Let's see what happens over the next few days.
I sure can use a cold one right now and I'm not even a drinker!
Wednesday, March 21, 2007
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