Tuesday, March 20, 2007

Stocks: How Frustrating Is This Market?



It seems like the market is doing a great job of chopping everyone up. If you were long last week, you got taken out of your longs when the market broke below the March 5th low. Now it seems like some shorts are being squeezed.

I'm still short SPY, QQQQ and DIA from the open on March 9th. I'm showing a small profit but I've given back way too much money. I feel this is still a pullback and the market will trend lower. If the market were to continue moving higher for more than 6 days and trade above the upper fib retracement level, I'd have to jump ship and throw in the towel. I've been saying that most pullbacks range from 3 to 5 days and this is day number 4. The 50% level should be strong resistance because it coincides with the high from 2 weeks ago.

I'm not happy about going into the fed meeting with not much of a cushion, but I'm going to stay short. My stops are right above the upper fib retracement level.

If you look at the above chart of the SPY and Yen, you will see that both markets are in the fib retracement window. Actually the Yen has bounced off the one third level and is moving higher. I view this as a typical pullback as long as these levels hold in both markets.

The one thing I didn't like about today is that the Yen was up, yet our market was up too. Recently whenever the Japanese yen moved higher, our stock market moved lower. So I'm not thrilled to see stocks up today with the yen but there are other reasons why I am bearish so I'll sit tight with my shorts and pray!!!!!

5 comments:

Sandro said...

Is Yen not in the triangle? So the solution of the puzzle is near?

Bank of Japan is probably jumping on the gun every morning at 9 a.m. far eastern time :-)

Kevin said...

Yen still looks good... I think it is going higher.

dps said...

Yep, the market is pretty surprising (frustrating), however, I am sticking with earlier predictions (though I am not stuck on them if proven wrong.). 1.) I see a divergence (volume / price) in the major markets. 2.) and I think this is weaker - but could have a resounding affect - Cramer's market manipulation comments - which are now just coming to light...

Dave

Kevin said...

Cramer is really something isn't he...This is why so many people get faked out by the market..

d333gs said...

Hi
I'm also holding the QIDs and added more yesterday.
From the mouth of a novice,I have been watching/researching the 9 Month cycle and the 20 week cycle.
It looks like the 20 week just bottomed and is now on its way up banging into a botoming 9 month cycle due in the coming weeks which should mark the end of the correction. I have also been watching the % charts of stocks over 50 & 200 DMA; If you scroll down on this chart, the 50s look close to being done but look at how much they zigzag on the way to the bottom And look at the 200s, they don't seem nearly to be done.

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$NAA50R&p=D&yr=3&mn=3&dy=
0&id=p94681118173&a=96642226

PS I am surprized that these cycles are still working in the WORLD stock market, maybe we all share the same vibs?

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