Wednesday, March 14, 2007

Stocks Bounce After Taking Out The March 5th Lows



Well, the market did what it was supposed to do. I've been saying there was a high probability that the March 5th lows would be tested and that's what we got today. The Dow and S&P clearly broke the low from March 5th while the NASDAQ just about got down to the low and then the entire market rallied.

Thinking in terms of weeks, this is the 3rd week down from the high. Most corrections last at the very least 6 weeks. I still feel the market will trend lower and I'm looking for rallies to short.

4 comments:

David said...

I think you are correct about the duration. I see tomorrow and perhaps the next few days as being on opportunity to be long - based upon the stong Hammer formations from today. Thoughts? I don't claim to be an expert - but that is what I see...

Kevin said...

None of us are experts..

I think you're right, we may see a day or two of buying or short covering. I don't know if I would actually want to be long, I'd rather use this as an opportunity to pick my spots to be short. That's just my opinion.

Ema said...

I think a key support level that the Dow bounced off of today is the November 3 low at 11965. If the market breaks this support level, the next support may be the 200 day MA?

Nimble said...

ema, I see us today as testing the April high(check weekly). I agree 200 day MA is next target on downside. We will get there... a -500 down day is not to be taken lightly. We need to be vigilent on the short side. If this bounce goes any higher, buyers might start coming in because there's a RSI divergence on the daily chart on the buy side.

Tomorrow, we will test the 60 min 50 period EMA unless some bad news comes out. 1407 there abouts for the ES. I am going to start shorting there and with stop at 1411.

Now that the 9 hour 45 point down from Tuesday has retraced almost 2/3. The 3 hour 30 points bounce need to retrace right? :))

This volatility is just mind boggling! I am embarassed to say I can't even catch a stretch of 10 points! I just keep on taking small profit an losses.

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