Thursday, February 22, 2007

Crude Oil

Crude oil was up again today which is great for my long position in oil and oil stocks, but I'm not happy with what's happening with the crude oil spreads. Like I pointed out yesterday, the spot month or nearby month should rally more than the back months if the market is truly bullish but that is not what's happening.
Here is the net change for the first four months in Crude oil today:
April up... $0.65
May up..... $1.01
June up.....$1.25
July up.....$1.30

As you can see the back months are stronger than the nearby months. This bothers me but not enough to make me want to exit my position. As long as price keeps going up I'll stay with my bullish outlook but these spreads are definitely something to keep an eye on.

Above is a chart of April Crude Oil. I see resistance at 61.50. If oil stalls around this area, I will exit a third of my long position because of the spreads.

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