Saturday, January 27, 2007

Top Three Myths Of Trading

Trading Is Easy:
Most people come into this business with the idea that trading for a living is easy. Well if you were to ask anyone who has traded for any length of time, they would be the first to tell you that trading is one of the hardest ways to make an "easy" buck.
Years ago the statistics were that 90% of people who try their hand at trading lose all of their money within the first year. I think now the statistics are a little bit better.. Now it's about 88% who lose their money! Trading is not easy but it can be done with hard work and discipline.

Keep Your Protective Stops Very Tight:
We are all told to use a protective stops when we put on a trade. Most people who do use stops place their stops very close to their entry point because they don't want to lose a great deal of money. They think they are protecting themselves. Well let me tell you that there is good news and bad news about using tight stops. The good news is if you get stopped out, it will be at a very small loss, the bad news is that you will get stopped out every time. I always use stops in my trading but I give markets room. Markets need room to breath. There is a great deal of noise in the market and if your stop is too close, just random noise will get you stopped out. A great way to place a stop is based on volatility. Use some percentage of the average true range. I like to use anywhere from one to three ATR's depending on the type of trade I am doing. Average true range will adapt to the current market's volatility giving you the proper stop. So the next time you decide to use a very tight stop because you think you are protecting yourself think again because you are actually hurting yourself.

Paper Trading Is The Same as Real Time Trading:
We are all told to paper trade. People say if you can do well paper trading you will do well when it comes to real time trading. Well if that were true, we would all be rich. I think everyone makes money paper trading but when it comes time to risk actual dollars in the market we lose money. Why is that? Well I like to think of it this way. If I placed a 30 foot steel beam on the ground and asked you to walk across it, most of us can do that with no problem. Now suppose I placed that same thirty foot beam across the roof of two tall apartment buildings would you be able to walk across it now? I say most likely no. It's the same steel beam but something new has happened. Fear is now in your mind and that will make you react in an entirely different manner. Well it's the same thing with trading. There is no fear when it comes to paper trading but once we are risking real money, fear and greed will enter your mind causing you to react differently than when you were paper trading. Don't get me wrong, paper trading does have its place and can help with the mechanics of trading and placing orders but never think just because you made money paper trading you will have the same results when it comes to real time trading.

11 comments:

Brett Steenbarger, Ph.D. said...

Nice post, Kevin; thanks. One use of paper trading is helping developing traders figure out if they truly have an edge in the market. If you can make consistent money paper trading but not trading live, it could well be that performance pressures are getting in the way. But if you can't make money paper trading, it suggests you lack an edge in your trading strategy. Many times people assume that their trading problems are psychological when, in fact, the strategies don't make money even when the pressures of live trading are eliminated.

Brett

Kevin said...

Hi Brett,

I agree with you. If you can't make money paper trading, then you won't be able to make money using that method in real time trading. I was just trying to point out that you could have a good method yet still lose money in real time trading because of fear and greed which is not present when we paper trade. Thanks for your comments they are always appreciated.

Patrick Wahl said...

You nailed it on the difficulty of trading, I'm one of the 90 percent (or 88), I still monitor things but don't actively trade anymore. I think Brett is right, paper trading too often is dismissed on the assumption that everyone makes money paper trading, but I don't think that's true. I think paper trading has a place for people who are just starting out in trading.

Like the blog.

Sandro said...

I think the novice (me included) mistake is to target some desired profit.

Instead, one should fix on desired risk and then try to get as much of profit within that risk as possible. Sometimes profit is zero, it doesn't mean that the risk has to be increased. It means you probably missed something...

And here comes the goal. If you target a profit you probably expect to pay your bills from trading. Doesn't work. With fixing risk your goal is to preserve the capital you already have. In good years it grows, in bad years it should stay the same.

Fontimama said...

Trading is easy!! Very easy!! Piece of cake!

Ok, to get there, it takes a lot of time and experience. And the problem is that trading is sooooo personal!! I don't think one could teach someone else to trade the same way that one does. I think that is what makes it sooooo difficult. One has to go through a great deal to form their own personal style after learning a great deal from many people and resources. Fundamental analysis, technical analysis, sentiment analysis, psychology, money management etc. there are too many facets of trading, hence the difficulty!! Nice article, I like coming back to your site for the charts!!!

Unknown said...

For sure.
Paper trading will tell you little of your trading skills or prowess. I'd love to paper trade. Thad be sweet.
For "reality" trading for us retail traders (like me) it's more of a reality dose of:
What? Only a partial fill?
What? I can't do that?
What? The stock is not available to short?
What? There are no buyers at the ask price?
What? I can't short stocks on the Nasdaq?
What? I had to pay what fee(s)?
What? I chose closing instead of opening?
Every time the phone rings after I place an order and it's a broker calling from the bank. I know... it's gonna be some piece of information which cannot be found on any website or help page.
So yeah... paper trading. Sweet. Don't waste your time... open a real trading account, and jump in head first. It worked for me, and I'm no genius!
Good luck, and happy trading!

ewaver said...

Kevin,

Fantastic stuff! Another one to print our and post on the wall...

Your site has quickly become a standout in the sea of stock market blogs out there.

Keep up the great work.

Best,
Zen

John Forman said...

I actually wrote about the paper trading subject in my own blog the other day as well.

http://www.theessentialsoftrading.com/Blog

I agree with Brett about the importance of using it to find your "edge", but I also agree with valero. There are things you can learn from live trading that you won't know while you paper trade - things that can be significant. Mechanical elements are part of it, like knowing how you will get filled and things like that. There are also the psychological elements, as I'm sure Brett would agree. Some systems look great in back-testing and paper testing, but won't work because you can't implement them for one reason or another. That's something else you may not find out until you go live, so to speak.

Brian said...

Kevin,

Great post! My thoughts exactly.

Brian

Anonymous said...

Hi Kevin,

I have added your site as a daily read after having found it through the grapevine of other fine writers, B Ritholtz, Russ Winter...

My husband and I appreciate your insight and comments.

Diana

Kevin said...

Thanks for the comments..

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