Wednesday, January 31, 2007

Market Summary



As expected, policy makers left rates unchanged at 5.25% for a fifth straight time.
If you look at the above chart you will see that the Dow and the S&P made new highs today but the NASDAQ is still diverging and hasn't made a new high.

So far earnings hasn't been able to cause the market to break out of this trading range, maybe now we'll finally see some movement one way or another.

The S&P closed up for the month so according to the "January Barometer", there is a high probability that the market will rally this year.

My personal opinion on the market is that I am still cautious. The NASDAQ is the only index I have short because it is the weakest out of the three. The Dow and S&P are in clear uptrends so I'm not even thinking about shorting them but I'm not buying them either. I really don't trust this rally so I'll just hang on to my short position in the Q's and play this one day at a time...But I'll tell you one thing, if I see signs of weakness, you can be sure that I will be adding to my short position. If on the other hand the market does explode to the upside, I'll take a small loss in the Q's and risk missing the long trade...I can live with that..Let's see what happens tomorrow.. I think the first day of February is usually an up day according to the almanac.

1 comment:

NA said...

K-

Why not have a 60% QQQQ puts-40% QQQQ long calls/stock% allocation? Since you expect QQQQs to go down you can profit from puts and in the meanwhile make profit if Qs go higher.

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