Friday, November 24, 2006

The Rule Of Multiple Techniques..



Today I'd like to talk about the power of combining indicators to increase the accuracy of getting a winning trade.. Years ago there was a book written by a man named Arthur Sklarew entitled "Techniques Of A Professional Commodity Chart Analyst". In his book he spoke about a rule that he named "The Rule Of Multiple Techniques"
I'll quote a few lines from his book.. " It has been my experience that the accuracy of any technical price forecast can be improved greatly by the application of a principle that I call the Rule of Multiple Techniques.. The rule requires that the chart technician not rely soley on one single technical signal or indicator, but look for confirmation from other technical indicators. The more Technical indicators that confirm eachother, the better the chance of an accurate forecast. The logic behind this rule is that if individual time-proven techniques tend to be right most of the time, a combination of several such techniques that confirm each other will tend to be right more frequently"
In the above chart we have a daily price chart of BJ.. In the lower panels we have the OBV (on balance volume) indicator, and underneath that we have the 14 day stochastics.. These two indicators on their own sometimes work and at other times cause us to lose money over and over again.. But what would happen if we combined the two indicators, would that help increase the odds of a winning trade? You bet! Notice in August BJ made a new low for the move.. The stochastics were in the oversold area indicating a buy..Do we just blindly buy... NO! Lets check other indicators...Notice that the OBV line in August did NOT make a new low, it was diverging... So by combining the two indicators ( an oversold Stochastic and a very bullish OBV line) our odds of a winning trade are greatly improved..The same setup happened in November and a huge upmove followed...
Now just because you combine indicators doesn't mean you will be right 100% of the time...What it does mean is that you will increase your odds of capturing a winning trade.. You don't have to use just 2 indicators, you can use 3 or 4 of your favorite indicators and simply just wait for at least 2 of them to confirm eachother...obviously the more indicators in agreement with eachother the better.. The trick is to make sure the indicators you are using are NOT related...Don't use stochastics and an RSI...They are bascially the same...You want to combine differnt indicators like momentum tools with seasonality, or accumulation distribution tools with inter market relationships...etc...I hope this helps..This is one of the most valuable things you can do to improve your trading.

1 comment:

JMHO said...

Great point. I rarely make decisions based on one TA. Even with multiple TA, I use hedging strategies with options to consider the probabilities of the trades not going my way.

By the way, I have my own investing blog which is about investing in Bitoech stocks. I have placed a link to your site and would apprecdiate a link back on yours.

thanks

JMHO
http://biotechnology-stock.blogspot.com/

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