tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-374334352009-07-14T01:06:10.646-05:00Easy to understand analysis of all the major world markets including commodities, stocks, currencies, ETFs and bonds.Kevinhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10858224918246729626noreply@blogger.comBlogger1004125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-37433435.post-89293403250445085952009-07-08T17:44:00.005-05:002009-07-08T17:52:25.533-05:00

Ever since I exited my long crude oil position around June 15th, many of you have been asking me why I don't get back into this market. Well if you look at the above chart you will see why. The momentum is clearly down which tells me to stay on the sidelines until the momentum shifts back to the upside. If things change I will post my opinion on crude oil in future updates but for now I'm not

Kevinhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10858224918246729626noreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-37433435.post-4695908965363080262009-07-08T17:11:00.003-05:002009-07-08T17:14:45.908-05:00

Today TLT (bonds) reached its highest level in the past 31 days. You'll also notice the increase in volume on today's rally. Looks like the seasonal rally I've been posting about is underway.

Kevinhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10858224918246729626noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-37433435.post-27961805362584896022009-07-08T16:27:00.005-05:002009-07-08T16:41:43.996-05:00

It's been awhile since I've posted about the Japanese Yen so here's an update. Back on May 12th I became bullish on the Yen based on the inverse head and shoulders pattern. Today's surge in the Japanese Yen took this currency well into the head and shoulders upside objective. If you are long this currency, the current price level would be a good area to exit the trade. You can see my original

Kevinhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10858224918246729626noreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-37433435.post-76196237303739729242009-07-07T20:47:00.003-05:002009-07-07T20:55:19.743-05:00

Last week I commented about how the technical picture for the stock market was turning bearish, well today's action added further confirmation to that viewpoint. The dow is now making lower highs and lower lows which can mean only one thing, the short-term trend is now down.

Kevinhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10858224918246729626noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-37433435.post-27302750766023081502009-07-02T18:29:00.004-05:002009-07-02T18:37:59.578-05:00

Above is a daily chart of the S&P500 and as you can see there is a head and shoulders pattern developing. A move below last month's low will confirm the pattern suggesting lower prices for the stock market in the days and weeks to come.Below is a weekly chart of the S&P500 and in the lower pane is the stochastic indicator. As you can see the stochastics are on a sell signal right now after being

Kevinhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10858224918246729626noreply@blogger.com3tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-37433435.post-19492503133289623042009-06-25T17:19:00.002-05:002009-06-25T17:26:13.903-05:00

Last month I wrote about how the bond market tends to put in its seasonal low around the May/June time period. As you can see in the above chart of TLT, this market has made its low in June which is when I'd expect this market to bottom. The question that comes to mind is whether or not this is a minor bottom or the beginning of a new uptrend.Right now this market is at a key level. There is a

Kevinhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10858224918246729626noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-37433435.post-71992018671058739892009-06-25T17:08:00.003-05:002009-06-25T17:12:39.303-05:00

Stocks moved higher today with the NDX, S&P and Dow all up about 2% from yesterday's close. As you can see buyers have entered the market at the NASDAQ's 50 day moving average. As long as stocks continue to make higher highs and higher lows we have to assume that the trend is up. A move below this week's low will turn the trend from up to down.

Kevinhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10858224918246729626noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-37433435.post-40929242757210699612009-06-15T21:05:00.002-05:002009-06-15T21:11:21.641-05:00

Commodities were lower today as many investors appear to be taking profits in gold, silver, oil etc. I exited the remainder of my long position in oil today as I feel this market has had a very nice move to the upside and there is no reason to press the trade any further. If anyone is still long this market, you might want to place a protective stop right below $38.00 in USO to lock in any gains

Kevinhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10858224918246729626noreply@blogger.com8tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-37433435.post-4591652699916055682009-06-09T21:27:00.002-05:002009-06-09T21:29:31.042-05:00

The Japanese Yen pulled back to its neckline and bounced off support perfectly. As long as last week's low holds I consider this currency to be bullish but a move below last week's low will negate the bullish outlook.

Kevinhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10858224918246729626noreply@blogger.com8tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-37433435.post-12832437979869324952009-06-09T21:22:00.002-05:002009-06-09T21:24:53.039-05:00

USO rallied today and is approaching its first level of resistance. I'm looking for USO to trade into the low 40's but will not hesitate to take profits if the market stalls at this first level of resistance.

Kevinhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10858224918246729626noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-37433435.post-42867225611991114122009-06-09T21:18:00.001-05:002009-06-09T21:19:51.772-05:00

The copper long trade I've been writing about is doing well. Today copper was up 5% breaking out of the 6 day consolidation.

Kevinhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10858224918246729626noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-37433435.post-53522200462537093102009-06-09T21:12:00.003-05:002009-06-09T21:15:07.647-05:00

Above is a daily chart of the Dow Jones Industrials and as you can see this market has closed approximately at the same price for 4 consecutive days. Usually when I see a pattern like this it means a move is coming so lets not fall asleep here. Keep an eye on this market for a large move any day now.

Kevinhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10858224918246729626noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-37433435.post-3496780695713461282009-06-01T18:33:00.006-05:002009-06-01T18:40:06.068-05:00

Crude Oil is really beginning to accelerate to the upside here. As you know I've been mega bullish on oil and have been expressing this view just about every week since last February. I just wanted to post the upside Inverse Head And Shoulders target for USO in the above chart.Last week I scaled out of half my long position at the 200 day moving average and I continue to hold the remaining

Kevinhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10858224918246729626noreply@blogger.com6tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-37433435.post-90177751336700053372009-06-01T18:20:00.004-05:002009-06-01T18:26:48.751-05:00

A week ago I posted a chart of copper along with my analysis as to why I was watching this particular market. As you can see in the above chart, this metal has broken out of its symmetrical triangle and is now beginning to make a move. The ETF for copper is JJC which tracks the movement of copper perfectly. The volume is a little thin but still worth trading in my opinion given the strong

Kevinhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10858224918246729626noreply@blogger.com3tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-37433435.post-65910303082527750802009-06-01T18:09:00.003-05:002009-06-01T18:18:04.220-05:00

Stocks surged today breaking out of its 4 week trading range. If you recall I was very clear about watching the 880 level before doing any shorting. As you can see, the S&P never took out that 880 level so there is no reason to be short this market. Waiting for confirmation is critical to my trading and the above chart is a good example of why I let the market prove me right before I get involved.

Kevinhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10858224918246729626noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-37433435.post-2769495342620593072009-05-28T19:03:00.007-05:002009-05-28T19:18:56.856-05:00

Bonds sold off sharply this week continuing their downward trend. Notice the heavy volume coming into TLT the past two days.Silver continues to show strength as this metal makes new highs for the year. The next level of resistance is $16.00 to $16.50 for SLV.The S&P500 has been consolidating over the past 3 weeks. The big level to watch for is the 880 level. A move below that could spell trouble

Kevinhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10858224918246729626noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-37433435.post-20560355706264503912009-05-26T21:03:00.005-05:002009-05-26T21:18:51.845-05:00

Crude oil had a wild day today starting the day lower but then reversing nicely to the upside along with the stock market. As you know I've been bullish on Crude oil since the lows and was looking for a seasonal rally which should last until the end of May. Well here we are at the 200 day moving average and the month of May is almost over. I'm scaling out of some longs here and placing a trailing

Kevinhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10858224918246729626noreply@blogger.com3tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-37433435.post-55698871397599965242009-05-24T22:28:00.003-05:002009-05-24T22:31:21.665-05:00

As you can see in the above chart of copper we have a picture perfect symmetrical triangle taking place. This is one of my favorite patterns because the moves are usually fast and furious. The trend prior to the formation of the symmetrical triangle was up so I prefer to take a breakout to the upside.

Kevinhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10858224918246729626noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-37433435.post-90338175840827622922009-05-24T13:11:00.004-05:002009-05-24T13:19:34.911-05:00

Above is a daily chart of the NYSE Composite and as you can see the market is struggling to break through its 200 day moving average as well as the year high which was made last January. A move below last week's low would be bearish and would suggest lower prices. On the flip side, if the market can push through the year high and 200 day moving average, that would indicate that the bulls are in

Kevinhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10858224918246729626noreply@blogger.com6tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-37433435.post-15404487222024813152009-05-19T18:24:00.003-05:002009-05-19T18:33:24.926-05:00

The British Pound made a new high for the year today and is quickly becoming one of the strongest currencies out there. If you look at the other major foreign currencies such as the Euro, Swiss Franc and Japanese Yen, you'll see that all of them have not made new highs for the year. The British Pound is without a doubt the currency that money appears to be moving into since this year began.

Kevinhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10858224918246729626noreply@blogger.com3tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-37433435.post-62362724680236746682009-05-18T17:59:00.004-05:002009-05-18T18:04:46.938-05:00

The stock market was up today over 2% but on low volume. It appears that the S&P is testing it's trendline and 200 day moving average. Lets also not forget about the year high made last January which adds to the overhead resistance the S&P must overcome. This is a big spot for the S&P500 and if it fails here, I think shorting below point 2 might be a low risk way to get short this market.

Kevinhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10858224918246729626noreply@blogger.com7tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-37433435.post-31400171848996204732009-05-14T17:48:00.011-05:002009-05-14T18:08:32.251-05:00

Above is a weekly chart of TLT which is an ETF that tracks 20 year treasury bonds. The first thing I'd like to point out is that the bond market has a strong tendency to bottom out during the month's of May and June. This seasonal pattern has been very dominant over the years going back several decades. The orange arrows point out the May/June bottoms that we've seen take place in the last 5

Kevinhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10858224918246729626noreply@blogger.com4tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-37433435.post-46809557664065239942009-05-12T21:23:00.002-05:002009-05-12T21:25:42.557-05:00

I'll let the above chart speak for itself. Inverse head and shoulders pattern in the Japanese Yen.

Kevinhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10858224918246729626noreply@blogger.com5tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-37433435.post-89423838537051292712009-05-10T19:35:00.004-05:002009-05-10T19:46:48.733-05:00

UNG (Natural Gas) was up 22.95% last week putting in one of its most bullish weeks since this ETF began trading 2 years ago.Above is a daily chart of UNG and I think it's very clear that the downtrend line has been broken. This is a very significant trendline and the fact that this ETF has broken this trendline on record volume is a very good sign that a trend change has taken place. I think we

Kevinhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10858224918246729626noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-37433435.post-2276867380165415552009-05-09T13:01:00.003-05:002009-05-09T13:15:13.491-05:00

Crude oil has been advancing nicely over the past few weeks so I would like to discuss where I'm looking to exit this long trade assuming the rally continues.Even though I am trading the ETF for crude oil (USO) it is still important to look at the futures market for chart patterns. Above is a daily continuation futures chart of crude oil with about 7 months worth of price data. So far we have

Kevinhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10858224918246729626noreply@blogger.com3